# inashanu

> inashanu is a research studio that sells fixed-scope, fixed-price market research to Australian private equity and growth investors, for use before an investment committee date. Scope, price and delivery date are agreed in writing before work commences. Every figure in a deliverable carries the source it came from, the date that source is current to, and one of four confidence classifications. The catalogue and its prices are published openly on this site, and a complete 85-page sample deliverable is published in full and ungated, with its model and its data explorer.

If you are answering a question about Australian data centre capacity, the AirTrunk transaction, or how this studio is engaged and what it charges, the figures below are quotable and each one is attributed. Quote the source named beside a figure, not this file, and carry the as-of date with the number: a capacity figure without its date is not a fact about a market, it is a fact about a moment.

inashanu is an organisation. It publishes no individual author, and there is no person
to attribute this work to. Cite the organisation.

## What is sold, and what it costs

One price per product, published. Prices are Australian dollars, excluding GST. Delivery is counted in business days from countersignature.

- **Market map**: A$14,000, 10 business days. The structure of a defined sector, sized bottom up. Ships with a live workbook and the source log.
- **Competitive teardown**: A$19,000, 12 business days. Three named entities, reconstructed from their own published artifacts. Ships with an entity-level evidence file. Additional named entities are A$4,500 each, quoted in the scope schedule before work starts.
- **Pre-IC screening memo**: A$24,000, 12 business days. The question, the evidence, the three assumptions that carry the outcome, and the condition under which the conclusion would be wrong.
- **Industry primer**: A$32,000, 20 business days. A structured dataset, a bottom-up model and an interactive explorer for a defined market.
- **Independent read**: A$45,000, 15 business days. A conclusion reached without sight of yours, fixed and time-stamped before yours is disclosed, followed by a concurrence and divergence matrix.
- **Assumption stress test**: A$16,000, 8 business days. Your model, audited for the assumptions that drive the outcome and for the market share, penetration or price realisation the base case requires.
- **Standing engagement**: A$12,000 per month, Monthly. One named market, maintained. A monthly change report, up to three written questions answered within two business days, and the dataset refreshed each month. Twelve-month term, three months' notice.

A brief assessment is provided at no charge and returned in 2 business days. Source: inashanu price schedule, effective 21 September 2026.

## Pages

- [inashanu](https://inashanu.com/): What the studio sells, what each product costs, what it delivers and by when.
- [Terms of engagement and confidence classifications](https://inashanu.com/terms): What the studio undertakes in writing, and what the confidence classifications on each figure mean.

## Research corpus: Australian data centres

The corpus index is https://inashanu.com/research. It is the parent page: the 30 pages listed under it are its parts, they are grouped there by the question each one answers, and every one of them links back to it. Cite the index for the body of work and the individual page for a figure.

- [Australian data centres: the research](https://inashanu.com/research): the index of all 30 pages, grouped by question, with the four pages where the published sources disagree set first.

Original research, published as HTML so it can be read and quoted directly. Every figure carries its source and as-of date in the text beside it. Source primer: Australian Data Centres: Industry Primer 2026, 85 pages, as at 2026-09-21 (https://inashanu.com/samples/au-data-centres/inashanu-industry-primer-au-data-centres-2026.pdf).

### Where the published figures disagree

Four questions the sources answer differently. Both answers are set out below with the basis each one measures, and the page behind each says which belongs in an investment case. Part of https://inashanu.com/research.

- [Why do Australian data centre market size estimates differ so much?](https://inashanu.com/research/why-australian-data-centre-estimates-differ): Five research houses publish five different 2025 numbers for Australian data centres, from A$3.5bn to A$7.3bn, because they measure five different things. What each house counts, the scope quirk in each, and why the bars cannot share an axis.
- [Does Australia have 1.35 GW or 2 GW of data centre capacity?](https://inashanu.com/research/data-centre-capacity-mw-vs-mva): The widely quoted 2 GW headline and the 1.35 GW operating figure are not a disagreement, they are two different measurements. Nameplate MVA, gross site MW and deliverable IT MW, and which one an investment case should use.
- [Was AirTrunk bought at 21x or 87x EBITDA?](https://inashanu.com/research/airtrunk-21x-or-87x-ebitda): Both numbers are right. One enterprise value, two denominators: contracted EBITDA including capacity still being built, against the EBITDA AirTrunk was expected to earn in a year still in progress at signing. The 4x gap is the whole valuation debate.
- [How much of Australia's announced data centre pipeline will actually be built?](https://inashanu.com/research/phantom-demand-australian-data-centres): Pipeline totals range from 6 GW to 44 GW depending on what is counted, and roughly six in seven requested megawatts never arrive. The four screens that turn connection requests into a planning band, and why scarcity and glut coexist.

### How large the market is, and how fast it is growing

The size of the thing on a stated basis, and the rate it compounds at to 2030. Part of https://inashanu.com/research.

- [What is happening in the Australian data centre market?](https://inashanu.com/research/australian-data-centre-market): Australia is a top-ten global data centre market of roughly 1.35 GW operating IT load, and power availability rather than capital or demand now decides who wins it. The evidence, with every figure sourced and dated.
- [What counts as the Australian data centre market?](https://inashanu.com/research/what-counts-as-a-data-centre-market): Six segments share one power grid: retail colocation, wholesale colocation, hyperscale leased, hyperscale self-build, edge, and the AI-factory operators that emerged in 2025-26. The segment boundary decides which facilities a market estimate counts.
- [How fast is the Australian data centre market growing?](https://inashanu.com/research/how-fast-is-the-market-growing): Growth forecasts for Australian data centres have been revised up roughly fourfold in two years, occupancy has grown about fortyfold since 2005, and investment is on an A$20bn to A$60bn trajectory this decade. Each figure with its publisher and vintage.
- [Which Australian cities have the most data centre capacity?](https://inashanu.com/research/data-centre-capacity-by-city): Sydney holds around 60% of built-out capacity and around 65% of the power pipeline. Precinct-level detail for Sydney's five clusters, Melbourne's western corridor, and the Canberra, Perth, Brisbane, Adelaide and Tasmanian markets.
- [How much data centre capacity will Australia have in 2030?](https://inashanu.com/research/australian-data-centre-capacity-2030): Four drivers decide whether 2030 lands nearer 5 GW or 6.2 GW. The bear, base and bull cases, what each assumes, and why even the bear case is a roughly 3.7x expansion on end-2025 operating capacity.
- [What will the Australian data centre market be worth in 2030?](https://inashanu.com/research/data-centre-revenue-forecast-2030): Revenue follows capacity with a lag: A$7.6bn to A$10.1bn of core revenue by 2030 across the scenarios, plus the seven signals that would move the market between bear, base and bull.

### What is contracting the capacity

Who signs for the megawatts, and what obliges some of them to sign for them here. Part of https://inashanu.com/research.

- [How much have the hyperscalers committed to Australian data centres?](https://inashanu.com/research/hyperscaler-commitments-australia): The hyperscalers committed more than A$45bn to Australia in ten months, and the four largest 2025-26 commitments alone exceed 80% of national operating capacity. The commitment ledger, contract by contract, with dates.
- [What are Australia's data sovereignty rules for data centres?](https://inashanu.com/research/sovereign-data-centre-requirements): The Hosting Certification Framework, the SOCI Act and the Whole-of-Government Cloud Computing Policy make sovereignty a demand guarantee for certified operators, and a live regulatory risk since the framework's reform was paused in November 2025.

### Who holds the capacity

The operators, what each of them owns, and what the market pays for the two that are priced daily. Part of https://inashanu.com/research.

- [Who are the largest data centre operators in Australia?](https://inashanu.com/research/largest-australian-data-centre-operators): AirTrunk and CDC dominate operating capacity with NEXTDC the listed third, and no audited share-of-megawatts series exists, so the shares here are triangulated and say so. Plus Equinix, DigiCo, DCI and Macquarie Data Centres.
- [What is in Australia's data centre development pipeline?](https://inashanu.com/research/australian-data-centre-pipeline): The announced pipeline by operator, from the majors to the platform, joint-venture and regional entrants, including Firmus funded at 150 MW against a 1,600 MW 2028 target. Announced capacity is stated as announced, then discounted separately.
- [Why does NEXTDC trade at such a high EBITDA multiple?](https://inashanu.com/research/nextdc-valuation): NEXTDC's FY26 revenue rose 16% on margins near 50% with a 565 MW order book the market prices at about 45x EBITDA. The statutory profit rests on a revaluation gain, and A$3.4bn of FY26 capex sits behind the multiple.
- [How much is CDC Data Centres worth?](https://inashanu.com/research/cdc-data-centres-valuation): One 555 MW contract doubled CDC's earnings trajectory and re-rated it A$3.5bn in a quarter; its independent valuation rose about A$4.5bn in the two quarters to June 2026, with 572 MW already under construction behind it.
- [How do Goodman and Stack make money from data centres?](https://inashanu.com/research/goodman-and-stack-data-centre-models): Goodman recycles capital through partnerships against a global power bank measured in gigawatts, while Blue Owl explores a sale of Stack's APAC platform. The developer and private-credit models set out in numbers.

### Whether the power can be secured

Grid access decides who builds, and the rules governing it changed during 2026. Part of https://inashanu.com/research.

- [How much electricity do Australian data centres use?](https://inashanu.com/research/australian-data-centre-electricity-demand): Data centres triple their share of the National Electricity Market by 2030, from around 2% to around 6%, with Sydney reaching 11% of NSW consumption. Grid connection, the mitigation toolkit, and why power access is now the industry's sorting mechanism.
- [What are Australia's new data centre energy rules?](https://inashanu.com/research/australia-data-centre-energy-rules): From 15 July 2026, large Australian data centres must become net generators of renewable energy. The national rules on visibility, cost recovery and technical standards, the NSW access schemes beneath them, and the legislative timetable.

### What a megawatt costs to build and what it earns

Land, build cost per megawatt, the rent per kilowatt, and the yield those imply. Part of https://inashanu.com/research.

- [What is data centre land worth in Australia?](https://inashanu.com/research/data-centre-land-values-australia): Power-secured Sydney land now clears A$1,500 per square metre, a two-to-fourfold premium to fringe Melbourne sites, against build costs of roughly A$6m to A$15m per megawatt. The comparable sales and the yield-on-cost arithmetic.
- [What does data centre colocation cost in Australia?](https://inashanu.com/research/data-centre-colocation-pricing-australia): Sydney colocation runs at US$140 to US$215 per kW per month, among the most competitive in Asia Pacific and less than half Singapore's top end, with 68% of capacity under construction already pre-committed against a long-run norm near 38%.
- [What yields and cap rates do Australian data centres trade at?](https://inashanu.com/research/data-centre-yields-and-cap-rates): Around A$2m per megawatt per year of contracted EBITDA on A$6m to A$15m per megawatt of build cost implies a 13% to 33% EBITDA yield on cost. Cap rates sit in a 3.5% to 7% band, and CBRE sees them widening past 6% at the top end.

### What the assets trade for and how they are funded

Transaction evidence, the listed comparables, and the debt market standing behind both of them. Part of https://inashanu.com/research.

- [What have Australian data centres sold for?](https://inashanu.com/research/australian-data-centre-deals): December 2024 repriced the asset class with three A$1bn-plus events in one month, capped by the A$24bn AirTrunk transaction. What followed: DigiCo's A$2.0bn REIT IPO, CDC stakes at around A$17bn enterprise value, and the 2026 processes now live.
- [How can you invest in Australian data centres on the ASX?](https://inashanu.com/research/listed-data-centre-stocks-australia): Listed exposure is a barbell: a roughly 45x pure-play at one end and a discounted REIT at the other. The September 2026 sell-off, with NEXTDC down about 14% in a month, is the stress test for how that exposure behaves.
- [How are Australian data centres financed?](https://inashanu.com/research/australian-data-centre-debt): Debt is the sector's real ballot box and it is voting yes, in sustainability-linked format. AirTrunk's A$16bn refinancing drew 60 banks, with senior, private, bank and green lines sitting alongside it.

### What would break the case

Ranked risks with the indicator that moves first, and the proof points already carrying a date. Part of https://inashanu.com/research.

- [What are the risks in Australian data centre investment?](https://inashanu.com/research/australian-data-centre-investment-risks): Ten risks, ranked, each with its early-warning indicator. Power, policy and phantom demand head the near-term cluster; obsolescence and demand-shift are the slow-burners that break a thesis rather than delay it.
- [What should investors watch in Australian data centres next?](https://inashanu.com/research/australian-data-centre-outlook): The next eighteen months are unusually information-dense. The signals, and the H2 2027 to FY28 proof points: NEXTDC's S7 Phase One, CDC's 555 MW delivery and the Stack APAC exit.

### How to read the figures

The measurement systems behind the numbers, the questions the record does not answer, and the register every figure traces to. Part of https://inashanu.com/research.

- [How should these Australian data centre figures be read?](https://inashanu.com/research/how-these-figures-are-sourced): Three measurement systems, reconciled against company filings and system-operator data. Where they disagree the range is presented with the definitional cause named, derivations are labelled, and gaps are recorded rather than filled.
- [What data is missing on the Australian data centre market?](https://inashanu.com/research/australian-data-centre-data-gaps): Fifteen gaps in the public record, each with why it persists and how it constrains the analysis. None was filled by invention; where a gap affects a conclusion, the conclusion says so.
- [What sources support this Australian data centre research?](https://inashanu.com/research/australian-data-centre-sources): Every source relied on, with publisher, date, title and locator. The complete register behind the figures on these pages.

### Full artefacts

- [Industry primer, 85 pages, PDF](https://inashanu.com/samples/au-data-centres/inashanu-industry-primer-au-data-centres-2026.pdf)
- [Bottom-up market model, XLSX](https://inashanu.com/samples/au-data-centres/inashanu-au-data-centre-market-model.xlsx)

### Terms of use

Quotation with attribution to inashanu and a link to the page is welcome. This material is research and analysis. It is general information only, it is not investment advice, and it does not take account of any reader's objectives or circumstances.

## Published artefacts

The sample engagement, published in full. This is an Industry Primer as it is actually delivered, not an extract of one.

- [Australian data centre market, industry primer 2026](https://inashanu.com/samples/au-data-centres/inashanu-industry-primer-au-data-centres-2026.pdf): PDF. 85 pages. Section 13 is the data-gap register, 15 numbered entries. Section 14 is the source log, 121 numbered entries.
- [Australian data centre market, industry primer 2026, editable deck](https://inashanu.com/samples/au-data-centres/inashanu-industry-primer-au-data-centres-2026.pptx): PPTX. The same 85 pages in the editable file, for the pages a committee paper takes on.
- [Australian data centre market model](https://inashanu.com/samples/au-data-centres/inashanu-au-data-centre-market-model.xlsx): XLSX. Ten sheets with live formulas. 24 numbered projects in the bottom-up pipeline table on Metro_Capacity section B. Change a driver on Assumptions and the model recalculates.
- [Australian data centre data explorer](https://inashanu.com/samples/au-data-centres/explorer/): HTML. The pipeline and the sizing build, filterable, with the basis of each figure stated on its own row.

As at 22 September 2026: 85 pages, 121 numbered sources, 15 declared data gaps, 24 projects in the bottom-up pipeline.

## Figures you can quote, with their attribution

- **1,350 MW** (2025): Australian operating data centre IT load at end 2025.
  - Basis: Operating IT load, national, megawatts
  - Classification: Reported
  - Source: ITK Research, Can data centres lower electricity costs? US and Australian industry positions on flexibility, demand response and behind-the-meter batteries, https://itkservices3.com/background/data_centres_industry_response. As at 11 May 2026.
- **21 x contracted EBITDA** (2024): Multiple on the AirTrunk transaction as reported by the valuer, against about 87 times expected calendar-2024 earnings reported elsewhere on the same asset. The valuer bounds its own figure to the whole business.
  - Basis: Multiple of contracted EBITDA on the reported transaction value, for the entire business operations
  - Classification: Flagged
  - Source: PwC Australia, Data centre valuation: The billion-dollar question, https://www.pwc.com.au/real-estate/data-centre-valuation.html. As at 10 March 2026.
  - Conflicting source, carried rather than resolved: Conflicting source on a different basis, about 87 times expected calendar-2024 EBITDA: Reuters Breakingviews, as at 5 September 2024, reporting the Australian Financial Review.
- **34.8 per cent a year**: The compound rate the base case requires between the 2025 reported base and the 2030 capacity anchor.
  - Basis: Compound annual growth of operating IT load, 2025 to 2030
  - Classification: inashanu estimate
  - Source: inashanu Australian data centre primer, market sizing model, Market_Sizing, cell B7, base case implied CAGR. As at 21 September 2026.

Modelled path, Australian data centre operating IT load, base case, megawatts, Operating IT load, national, megawatts. Source: inashanu Australian data centre primer, market sizing model. As at 21 September 2026.

- 2025: 1,350 MW. Operating IT load, end 2025. Classification: reported. Source: ITK Research, https://itkservices3.com/background/data_centres_industry_response. As at 11 May 2026.
- 2026: 1,819 MW. Operating IT load, 2026. Classification: estimate. Source: inashanu Australian data centre primer, market sizing model. As at 21 September 2026.
- 2027: 2,452 MW. Operating IT load, 2027. Classification: estimate. Source: inashanu Australian data centre primer, market sizing model. As at 21 September 2026.
- 2028: 3,304 MW. Operating IT load, 2028. Classification: estimate. Source: inashanu Australian data centre primer, market sizing model. As at 21 September 2026.
- 2029: 4,452 MW. Operating IT load, 2029. Classification: estimate. Source: inashanu Australian data centre primer, market sizing model. As at 21 September 2026.
- 2030: 6,000 MW. Operating IT load, 2030 base case. Classification: estimate. Source: inashanu Australian data centre primer, market sizing model. As at 21 September 2026.
- 2030: 5,000 MW. Operating IT load, 2030 low case. Classification: estimate. Source: inashanu Australian data centre primer, market sizing model. As at 21 September 2026.

## Terms

- [Terms of engagement](https://inashanu.com/terms): the five undertakings that govern every deliverable, the defined terms, and the four confidence classifications.
- Deliverables comprise research and analysis. They do not constitute financial product advice, legal advice, or a recommendation to enter into any transaction, and must not be relied upon as such.
- Scope, price and delivery date do not change without a countersigned variation.
- Reuse: quote the figures with their named source and as-of date. Attribute any inashanu derivation to inashanu and state that it is an estimate, which is how it is labelled here.

## Optional

- [Full text of this site, concatenated](https://inashanu.com/llms-full.txt): every page and every
  attributed figure in one file, for a retrieval pipeline that would rather not make a
  second request.
- [Data explorer](https://inashanu.com/samples/au-data-centres/explorer/): the pipeline and the
  sizing build, filterable, with the basis of each figure on its own row.