Original research for complex decisions in markets and public policy, every figure sourced and dated.https://inashanu.com/research/2026-10-21T00:00:00Zinashanuhttps://inashanu.com/research/australian-data-centre-market2026-10-21T00:00:00Z

inashanu's central case puts about 4.36 GW of data centre IT in operation in Australia at the end of 2030, from 1.4 GW at end-2025, as at 21 October 2026.

https://inashanu.com/research/what-counts-as-a-data-centre-market2026-10-21T00:00:00Z

Six segments share one grid: retail and wholesale colocation, hyperscale leased and self-build, edge, and AI factories. Where the boundary falls decides the count.

https://inashanu.com/research/how-fast-is-the-market-growing2026-10-21T00:00:00Z

Published growth rates run from under 6% a year for broad revenue to about 36% for installed capacity, as at 9 October 2026. What each rate measures.

https://inashanu.com/research/data-centre-capacity-by-city2026-10-21T00:00:00Z

Sydney holds about 60% of built-out data centre capacity and 31% to 53% of the pipeline, by measure, as at 21 October 2026. Precinct detail for each city.

https://inashanu.com/research/hyperscaler-commitments-australia2026-10-21T00:00:00Z

The hyperscalers committed more than A$45bn to Australia in ten months to 23 April 2026. The commitment ledger, program by program, with dates and sources.

https://inashanu.com/research/sovereign-data-centre-requirements2026-10-21T00:00:00Z

The Hosting Certification Framework, the SOCI Act and the cloud policy make sovereignty a demand guarantee, and a live risk since the 3 November 2025 pause.

https://inashanu.com/research/australian-data-centre-pipeline2026-10-21T00:00:00Z

The register holds 230 campuses in 272 tranches: where a figure is published, 1.51 GW of IT operating and 29.3 GW in the pipeline (inashanu register, 21 Oct 2026).

https://inashanu.com/research/data-centre-land-values-australia2026-10-21T00:00:00Z

Kemps Creek land is contracted at A$1,500 a square metre, conditional and without secured power, as at 21 October 2026. The comparable sales and the margins.

https://inashanu.com/research/australian-data-centre-electricity-demand2026-10-21T00:00:00Z

AEMO's Step Change takes data centre consumption from 7.9 TWh in FY27 to 19.3 TWh in FY31, as at 25 August 2026, with NSW and Victoria using 92% of it.

https://inashanu.com/research/australia-data-centre-energy-rules2026-10-21T00:00:00Z

Large data centres are to become net generators under the 15 July 2026 framework, though none of it is law yet. The national rules, the NSW bill and the timetable.

https://inashanu.com/research/largest-australian-data-centre-operators2026-10-21T00:00:00Z

AirTrunk, CDC and NEXTDC hold 74.8% of the operating IT that publishes a figure, as at 21 October 2026; 57 operating tranches publish none, so the share is lower.

https://inashanu.com/research/nextdc-valuation2026-10-21T00:00:00Z

At the 16 October 2026 close NEXTDC traded at 38.0x EV/EBITDA on a 565 MW order book, after FY26 revenue rose 16%. What sits behind the multiple.

https://inashanu.com/research/cdc-data-centres-valuation2026-10-21T00:00:00Z

One 555 MW contract doubled CDC's contracted capacity and re-rated it A$3.5bn in a quarter. Its valuation was A$18.45bn at 30 September 2026 (Infratil).

https://inashanu.com/research/goodman-and-stack-data-centre-models2026-10-21T00:00:00Z

Goodman recycles capital against a 6.4 GW global power bank, and Blue Owl is in talks to sell STACK APAC at up to US$25bn, as at 24 September 2026.

https://inashanu.com/research/data-centre-colocation-pricing-australia2026-10-21T00:00:00Z

Sydney colocation runs at US$160 to US$215 per kW a month, less than half Singapore's top end, with rents firm in Q1 2026 (CBRE, as at 17 June 2026).

https://inashanu.com/research/data-centre-yields-and-cap-rates2026-10-21T00:00:00Z

CDC's contracted EBITDAF on its capex implies about 13% yield on cost, nearer 10% in cash. Cap rates span 3.5% to 8.5% (CBRE and PwC, as at 30 April 2026).

https://inashanu.com/research/australian-data-centre-deals2026-10-21T00:00:00Z

December 2024 repriced the asset class: three A$1bn-plus events in one month, capped by the A$24bn AirTrunk deal. What followed, and what is live.

https://inashanu.com/research/listed-data-centre-stocks-australia2026-10-21T00:00:00Z

Listed exposure is a barbell: NEXTDC at about 38x EV/EBITDA and DigiCo below its NTA, at the 16 October 2026 close. NEXTDC fell 19.4% in a month.

https://inashanu.com/research/australian-data-centre-debt2026-10-21T00:00:00Z

About A$31bn of A$ facilities raised since July 2025, over half of it AirTrunk's A$16bn, as at 7 October 2026. The debt ledger and its formats.

https://inashanu.com/research/australian-data-centre-capacity-20302026-10-21T00:00:00Z

4.36 GW of operating IT at the end of 2030 in the central case, and between 3.44 GW and 5.58 GW in four runs in five, as at 21 October 2026.

https://inashanu.com/research/australian-data-centre-delivery-rates2026-10-21T00:00:00Z

Half the phases entering the record reached operation within four years, and 94% once construction started, as at 21 October 2026. The backtest scores it.

https://inashanu.com/research/data-centre-grid-and-planning-australia2026-10-21T00:00:00Z

Of the register's 29.3 GW pipeline where a figure is published, 24.5 GW lies within 5 km of a 220 kV+ line and 13.1 GW has no planning application (21 Oct 2026).

https://inashanu.com/research/data-centre-demand-and-supply-australia2026-10-21T00:00:00Z

The median 2030 supply of 4.36 GW leaves the fleet drawing 35% of its connection capacity on AEMO's central demand forecast, as at 21 October 2026.

https://inashanu.com/research/data-centre-revenue-forecast-20302026-10-21T00:00:00Z

Services revenue reaches A$7.3bn to A$9.8bn by FY30 across the scenarios, as at 21 October 2026, with six signals that would move the market between them.

https://inashanu.com/research/australian-data-centre-investment-risks2026-10-21T00:00:00Z

Ten risks, ranked, each with its early-warning indicator. Power, policy, phantom demand and valuation head the cluster; power delayed a listed operator in October.

https://inashanu.com/research/australian-data-centre-outlook2026-10-21T00:00:00Z

The next eighteen months are information-dense. The signals, and the proof points from FY27 to FY29: the STACK APAC exit, grid supply at M3 and CDC's 555 MW.

https://inashanu.com/research/why-australian-data-centre-estimates-differ2026-10-21T00:00:00Z

Four research houses publish six 2026 market sizes from A$3.9bn to A$10.4bn, read 19 to 20 October 2026, because they measure different things. What each counts.

https://inashanu.com/research/data-centre-capacity-mw-vs-mva2026-10-21T00:00:00Z

DC Byte's 1.4 GW of operational IT and AEMO's 2.22 GW of connection capacity measure two quantities, IT load and site power, as at 25 August 2026.

https://inashanu.com/research/airtrunk-21x-or-87x-ebitda2026-10-21T00:00:00Z

The two reported AirTrunk multiples divide one A$24bn enterprise value by different earnings. The 4x gap between them is the valuation debate.

https://inashanu.com/research/phantom-demand-australian-data-centres2026-10-21T00:00:00Z

About 10% of the register's pipeline is expected in operation by the end of 2030, as at 21 October 2026. The stage odds, AEMO's queue and the evidence.

https://inashanu.com/research/how-these-figures-are-sourced2026-10-21T00:00:00Z

Three measurement systems, reconciled against filings, system-operator data and the register. Where they disagree the range is given with its cause named.

https://inashanu.com/research/data-centre-capacity-forecast-method2026-10-21T00:00:00Z

A census of the public record, 272 tranches in 230 campuses, and a seeded simulation of every tranche over 20,000 runs. How the 2030 range is built and tested.

https://inashanu.com/research/australian-data-centre-data-gaps2026-10-21T00:00:00Z

Sixteen gaps in the public record, each with why it persists and how it constrains the analysis. Where a gap affects a conclusion, the conclusion says so.

https://inashanu.com/research/australian-data-centre-sources2026-10-21T00:00:00Z

Every document the primer and its market model cite: 383 documents from 125 publishers, each with its date, title and locator.