Will demand absorb Australia's data centre supply to 2030?

AEMO's Step Change needs 3.46 GW of IT at end-2030 if the fleet matures as AEMO expects, and 5.71 GW at today's load; the median supply of 4.36 GW needs the fleet to draw 35% of its connection capacity, against 27% today

AEMO's Step Change needs 3.46 GW of IT at the end of 2030 if the fleet matures as AEMO expects, and 5.71 GW at today's load factor, so the median supply of 4.36 GW needs the fleet to draw 35% of its connection capacity, against 27% today (AEMO, 25 August 2026; inashanu market model, as at 21 October 2026). NEXTDC's and CDC's contracted books hold 1.11 GW to 1.32 GW of IT not yet billing, and a cap at Step Change's need would bind in 89% of runs, as at 21 October 2026.

IT needed at end-2030 by AEMO scenario, from a maturing to today's load factor, GW

Supply, end-2030: P10 to P90 and the median

NEM plus the WEM; the Northern Territory and the rest of WA are outside both.

From terawatt-hours to megawatts of IT

What the gap means

Either the fleet runs well below its connection capacity while new campuses fill, or demand runs above Step Change (Accelerated Transition needs 4.77 GW), or supply arrives later. Pages 38 and 39 test each.

NEXTDC's and CDC's contracted books hold 1.11 GW to 1.32 GW of Australian IT not yet billing, 54% to 64% of the additions Step Change needs by end-2030

The contracted books at the evidence date

When the books convert, as the operators disclose it (MW)

The headline's 1.11 GW to 1.32 GW adds NEXTDC's book not yet billing (555 to 565 MW, the range being its Malaysian site) and CDC's (its Australian 555 MW contract, up to 750 MW: the group's contracted less deployed capacity). CDC's conversion figures are group-wide deployment, stated as 'more than'; NEXTDC's are its forward order book converting to billing.

What the books say about demand

• Contracted ahead. NEXTDC's contracted utilisation (740.1 MW) is 2.6 times its built capacity and 4.2 times its billing.
• Built ahead. Billing is 61% of NEXTDC's built capacity; AEMO puts the fleet's draw at 27% of its connection capacity.
• Concentrated. CDC's 555 MW is one US hyperscale customer; a second contract of 400 MW or more is signal 04 on page 13.
• Unpriced. No book carries a public price; CDC's contracted EBITDAF is about A$2.0m per MW a year.
• Beyond the books. Dexus has lease documentation with Anthropic's Australian subsidiary for the first stage of the Western Downs Digital Park (16 Sep 2026), with no MW stated; the applicant puts a stage at about 360 MW.

Evidence of demand

The books are binding contracts or contracted capacity, so they are evidence of demand as well as of supply. They cover the operators that disclose them; AirTrunk, the hyperscalers' own campuses and the other operators publish none.

Capped at Step Change's need, the median would be 3.46 GW, and 4.33 GW with 25% headroom; the cap binds in 89% of runs, so the gap is a question of load factor as much as of demand

End-2030 median, uncapped and capped at Step Change's need, GW

The cap is the larger of Step Change's IT need (NEM and WEM) and the covered contract books, raised by the stated headroom; each run above it is cut to it. Shares capped: 89% at 0% headroom; 77% at 10% headroom; 52% at 25% headroom.

Three ways the gap closes

1. Low utilisation. If supply arrives as modelled and demand follows Step Change, the fleet draws 35% of its connection capacity at end-2030, against the 45% to 51% AEMO expects of mature campuses. NEXTDC already bills 61% of what it has built; the excess would show up as vacancy.
2. Demand above Step Change. Accelerated Transition's 26.6 TWh in 2030-31 needs 4.77 GW of IT at the maturing load factor, more than the median supply. It is AEMO's high case; Step Change is its central one.
3. Supply later. A year's slip in every disclosed schedule takes the median to 4.29 GW (page 11): most schedules end before 2030, so a year moves them less than it would a later book.

What to watch

AEMO's measured load factor is the gauge: a rise from 27% towards 45% says demand is taking up the new capacity; a flat reading while supply arrives says vacancy is building.

Sources

1. AEMO 2026 ESOO and its data centre forecast by Oxford Economics Australia, as at 25 Aug 2026
2. AEMO 2026 WEM ESOO, as at Jun 2026
3. inashanu market model, as at 21 Oct 2026
4. NEXTDC FY26 results, as at 27 Aug 2026
5. Infratil and CDC Investor Day (16 Sep 2026) and Infratil, as at 5 May and 7 Oct 2026
6. DigiCo, as at 15 Oct 2026
7. Dexus, as at 16 Sep 2026
8. Western Downs Digital Park application, as at 29 Sep 2026
9. AEMO, as at 2026

Related

• How much electricity do Australian data centres use?
• How much data centre capacity will Australia have in 2030?
• How much have the hyperscalers committed to Australian data centres?
• How much of the register's data centre pipeline will be operating by 2030?

The full primer is published as a 103-page PDF (download). The market model and the register behind it are licensed to firms on request; the study page lists what is published and what is licensed.